Commerce index 1% in June, more slow growth to come

A measurement of trade Street in the United States on the consumption of diesel fuel by 1% in June after two consecutive months of losses, which indicates that industrial production and second quarter GDP growth in most are showing no real drivers of growth set to show although modest real time index 'pick the line up".

Much more accurately than a survey of the pulse of Commerce index (PCI) rose a meager 1% in June, the index leading Chief, the Economist, Ed Leamer, call it a "food".  While the PCI after two consecutive months of decline restored Leamer said that it shows are "more the same slow growth" as markets completely in the dark, what will happen next.

PCI of the Ceridian and UCLA Anderson School of management, provides a real-time view of the State of trade through the persecution, the volume and the location of diesel fuel purchased by truck.

Markets have been news lately, over-responsive after Leamer, the known "get you a week of bad news, everyone runs from stocks bonds, everyone runs then weekly decent news from bonds to cash, and sends a week, then good news everyone back in shares, this makes for a crazy market."

The last significant growth was inventory restocking in late 2009 and early 2010, said Leamer, pointed out that it is very difficult to identify, which component will pick up the baton, and the US economy forward.  Are next consumer deleveraging, big ticket items that fuel faced economic extensions, such as cars and homes, lower demand. (See no recovery possible, during U.S. consumer Deleveraging continues).

High energy prices have eaten in consumer purchasing power, which already suffer from a weak labour market.  "There's no question that energy contributed, and I determined this latest drag on growth,", Leamer said. (See oil prices: Brent WTI spread over $22 and here to stay).

A growing labour market supports positive feedback loops to create fuel and jobs.  But with the construction pipeline and manufacturing jobs devastated globalization and technological progress due to an oversupplied market and the ever-present foreclosure on a downward trend since the early 1990's given, job markets "set a post-war record for inertia." (Read job cuts accelerated in June with Government leads the Donwsizing).
Indicates the PCI, second quarter GDP will grow to 1.8% on an annual basis.  The first estimate of the U.S. Department of Commerce is set to be released on Jul 29.  Industrial production, on 15 July, expected will be expected to be modest, 0.17% According to the index.

A few sectors have been front perform well on jobs, Leamer said.  Durable manufacturing, especially the automobile sector, had a significant rebound since Detroit's big three, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, were on their knees in set.  Above trend growth in mining and utilities, was observed noticed Leamer. (Read jobs report sucked, but S & P 500 end year by 8% to 10%).

However, the index is a further sign, which remains the US economy in a soft patch.  In his address to Congress said Chairman Ben Bernanke politician that the recovery continues to lower continued as expected and that further monetary stimulus or QE3, is not the table.  While Bernanke was accurate to say, inflation and the impact of the chain of supply disruption in Japan proves temporary, he holds still on his prediction that will pick up economic activity in the coming quarters.  In accordance with PCI, it seems not as the next quarters will show much growth at all. (Read Bernanke Ron Paul fights in Congress: "gold not money").

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